广西2013—2017年死因监测点主要慢性病早死概率及变化趋势

目的 分析广西死因监测点心脑血管疾病、癌症、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病4种慢性病死亡率、早死概率及变化趋势,为制定策略提供科学依据。方法 收集2013—2017年广西死因监测点报告的死亡数据,计算死亡率、标化死亡率、构成比、早死概率和年度变化百分比（APC）,用SPSS 17.0 进行统计分析,率的比较用χ²检验,趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。结果 男性、农村死亡率分别高于女性、城市,差异均有统计学意义（P<0.01）。男性、女性、城市、农村死亡率APC分别为-0.40%、1.14%、4.39%、-0.20%,变化趋势差异均无统计学意义（P>0.05）。主要慢性病死亡率由477.76/10万上升至491.80/10万,APC为0.30%,变化趋势差异无统计学意义（F=0.17,P=0.707）,标化死亡率由343.78/10万下降至336.04/10万,APC为-1.49%,变化趋势差异无统计学意义（F=1.44,P=0.316）。主要慢性病早死概率在16.92%~17.68%之间波动,APC为0.50%,变化趋势差异无统计学意义（F=0.51,P=0.525）。男性、农村早死概率分别高于女性、城市,男性、女性、城市、农村早死概率分别以0.60%、0.40%、2.74%、0.20%的速度上升。心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率分别以1.39%、7.23%的速度下降;癌症、糖尿病早死概率分别以3.15%、11.40%的速度上升。结论 广西死因监测点4种慢性病早死概率处于较高的水平,男性、女性、城市、农村早死概率均呈上升趋势,癌症和糖尿病是导致早死概率上升的主要疾病,建议以男性和农村居民为重点人群,进一步加强慢性病的综合防治。

Trend change and probability of premature mortality caused by major non-communicable diseases in death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi,2013-2017

Objective The mortality rate, probability of premature mortality caused and change trend of four kinds of chronic diseases such as cardiovas-cular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi were analyzed, which provided scientific basis for formulating strategies.Methods To collect the death data reported by Guangxi cause of death monitoring points in 2013-2017, calculate mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, composition ratio, probability of premature mortality caused and percentage of annual change, and carry out statistical analysis with SPSS 17.0, and compare the rate with χ² test. The exponential distribution regression model of curve estimation was used to judge the trend change.Results The mortality rates in male and rural areas were higher than those in females and in cities (P<0.01), and the APC of mortality rates in males, females, urban and rural areas were -0.40%,1.14%,4.39% and -0.20%, there were no statistical significance in the change trend.The mortality rate of major chronic diseases increased from 477.76 /10⁵ to 491.80 /10⁵, APC = 0.30%, and the trend of change was not statistically significant（F=0.17,P=0.707）. The standardized mortality rate decreased from 343.78 /10⁵ to 336.04/10⁵, APC=-1.49% and there was no statistical significance in the change trend (F=1.44, P=0.316). The total probability of premature mortality caused of chronic diseases fluctuated between 16.92% and 17.68%. The APC was 0.50%, and the change trend was not statistically significant (F=0.51, P=0.525). The probability of premature mortality caused in male and rural areas were higher than that in women and cities. The probability of premature mortality causedin men, women, cities and rural areas increased at 0.60%, 0.40%, 2.74% and 0.20% respectively.The probability of premature mortality caused of cardiovas-cular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases decreased by 1.39% and 7.23% respectively, and cancer and diabetes increased by 3.15% and 11.40% respectively.Conclusion The probability of premature mortality caused of four kinds of chronic diseases was at a higher level in death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi. The probability of premature mortality caused of male, female, urban and rural were all on the rise. Cancer and diabetes were the main diseases that led to the increase of premature mortality caused rate. It is suggested that the comprehensive prevention and treatment of chronic diseases should be further strengthened with male and rural residents as the key population.