A generalized stochastic model for simulation of epidemics in a heterogeneous population (model VI)

A new, more general, stochastic model of epidemics is described. This model, one in a continuing series by Elveback and co-workers, includes provision for more complex, pseudo-sociologically stratified populations. Other major new features include the use of several types of conditional probabilities and of time-varying patterns of infectiousness to enable a more detailed simulation of individual and time-related differences in reactions to the infectious agent. A specific computer implementation of one and two-agent versions of this model is illustrated. Plans for additional computer-based simulation studies are discussed, for this and related models.