上海市某区居民脑卒中死亡与大气污染关系的时间序列研究

目的　分析大气污染急性暴露对居民每日脑卒中死亡的影响。方法　采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型 ,在控制死亡的长期趋势、气象因素、“星期几效应”等混杂因素的基础上 ,分析了上海市某区 2 0 0 1年 1月 1日～ 12月 31日大气污染与居民每日脑卒中死亡的关系。结果　大气PM10 ,SO2 和NO2 4 8h平均浓度每增加 10 μg m3 ,居民因脑卒中而死亡的相对危险度分别为 1 0 0 8(95 %CI 1 0 0 0～ 1 0 16 ) ,1 0 17(95 %CI 0 998～ 1 0 36 )和 1 0 2 9(95 %CI1 0 0 1～ 1 0 5 7)。结论　上海市某区目前的PM10 和NO2 水平对居民脑卒中死亡有影响。

A time-series study on the association of stroke mortality and air pollution in Zhabei District,Shanghai

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between air pollution and daily stroke mortality. METHODS: All death records of the decreased who lived in one urban district of Shanghai and died from stroke from January 1 to December 31, 2001 were collected. We used a time series approach to study the acute effects of air pollution on stroke mortality after controlling for long-term trends, weather variables, and day of the week. RESULTS: An increase of 10 micrograms/m3 of PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponds to 1.008 (95% CI 1.000-1.016), 1.017 (95% CI 0.998-1.036), and 1.029 (95% CI 1.001-1.057) relative risk of stroke mortality, respectively in Shanghai. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide new evidence for the association between air pollution and acute stroke mortality risk.