济南市2015-2020年4类重大慢性病死亡水平及早死概率变化趋势分析

目的:分析2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率的特点及其变化趋势。方法:利用2015-2020年济南市的死因监测资料和人口资料，应用简略寿命表法、Joinpoint回归法等方法，分析4类重大慢性病早死概率的特点及变化趋势。结果:2015-2020年4类重大慢性病的粗死亡率、标化死亡率变化范围分别为568.6...

Analysis on mortality and premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan, 2015-2020

Objective To understand the characteristics and trend of the premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji''nan from 2015 to 2020. Methods The death cause surveillance data and population data during 2015-2020 in Ji''nan were collected, and abbreviated life table, Joinpoint regression analysis and other methods were used to analyze the characteristics and change trends of the premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases. Results The crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate changes for the 4 major chronic diseases from 2015 to 2020 range from 568.65/100 000 to 604.06/100 000 and 366.77/100 000 to 432.48/100 000, respectively. The annual premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases declined by 3.33% averagely from 2015 to 2020 (95%CI:-6.25%- -0.32%), which might be explained by the declines of the premature death rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases[average annual percentage change (AAPC)=-3.23%, 95%CI:-6.32%- -0.05%] and cancer (AAPC=-3.58%,95%CI:-6.83%- -0.21%). The average decline rate in women (AAPC=-4.19%,95%CI:-7.56%- -0.70%) was higher than that in men (AAPC=-2.92%,95%CI:-5.65%- -0.11%). Conclusions The premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases showed a downward trend in Ji''nan from 2015 to 2020. Men should be considered as a key population in the prevention and control of 4 major chronic diseases, and attention should also be paid to the non-significant declines in the premature death rates of chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes.