宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情动态清零精准防控策略和措施效果评价

目的:对宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情动态清零精准防控策略和措施效果进行评价。方法:根据2021年12月宁波市报告的COVID-19确诊病例和个案流行病学调查报告绘制流行曲线，建立传播动力学模型，预测不同干预措施下的累计确诊病例数，计算基本再生数（ R0）和实时再生数（ R ...

Effectiveness of precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province

Objective To evaluate effectiveness of the precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province. Methods Based on the incidence data of COVID-19 and case epidemiological survey report in Ningbo in December 2021, the incidence curve of COVID-19 was generated and a dynamics model was developed to estimate the case number of under different intervention measures. The basic reproduction number (R₀) and real-time reproduction number (R_t) were calculated to evaluate intervention effect. Results A total of 74 cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Ningbo as of 17 December, 2021. The R₀ was estimated to be 4.3. With the strengthening of prevention and control measures, the R_t showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on December 11 and 0.4 on December 14. The model fitting results showed that the actual case number was close to the estimated case number (76 cases) when the effectiveness of intervention was 90%. The number of cases decreased by 98.4% compared with that if no intervention was taken. Conclusion The precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 have obvious effect, which can facilitate the rapid control of COVID-19 epidemic in Ningbo.