Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model

AIMS: After a period of steady decline in smoking prevalence, smoking rates leveled off in the United States between 1990 and 1997, but began falling between 1997 and 2003. Trends in smoking prevalence, and the role of tobacco control policies in affecting those rates, are examined. DESIGN: A computer simulation model is used in which smoking prevalence evolves through initiation and cessation, which are in turn influenced by tobacco control policies. METHODS: The results of the model are compared to smoking prevalence measures from the US National Health Interview Survey between 1993 and 2003. We also consider the role of tax/price, clean air laws, media campaigns and youth access policies in influencing these rates. FINDINGS: Both the SimSmoke model and data for recent years indicate that adult smoking prevalence changed little between 1993 and 1997, and even increased among youth. Between 1997 and 2003, smoking prevalence has been declining. Most age, gender and racial-ethnic groups show patterns similar to that of the entire population, with differences for those aged 18-24 years. The predominant trends were explained mainly by changes in price, with some residual effect of clean air laws, media campaigns and youth access laws. CONCLUSIONS: Among public tobacco control policies, price had the dominant effect on smoking prevalence between 1993 and 2003, because few states implemented other policies to the degree necessary to affect much change. Through continued tax increases, stronger clean air laws, extensive media campaigns and broader cessation treatment programs, there is the potential to have much larger reductions in smoking prevalence.