普查法与乘数法估计暗娼人群基数方法学的试点研究

目的 通过普查法与乘数法的现场应用，探索不同地区暗娼人群规模估计的有效方法，为疫情估计及预防控制策略制定提供科学依据。方法 普查法是存短时间内对城区所有可能存在暗娼的场所的暗娼人数进行清点计数；乘数法是3个月内到指定性病门诊就诊的暗娼人数，乘以暗娼人群中在3个月内到指定门诊就诊的比例的倒数，得到暗娼人数。结果 兴义市暗娼人数普查法结果为1521人，乘数法结果为2542人。结论 普查法结果直接，原理简单，省时省力，对经费的要求小，适合在小城市或县城开展，但容易造成遗漏。乘数法需要开展流行病学调查，花费较多人力物力，但可利用现有的监测及流行病学调查资源，适合在大中型城市开展，且估计结果相对准确。

Using census and multiplier methods to estimate the size of commercial sex workers at risk for HIV-a pilot study

Objectives To explore methods of estimating the size of commercial sex workers(CSWs)at risk for HIV for better epidemic estimation and policy making.Methods Census and multiplier methods were used.Census method was to count every individual sex worker based in each sites within a short space of time.Multiplier method relied on information collected from two different sources.Firstly,the number of CSWs were accounted among STD attendees who attended selected STD clinics within three months;secondly,a special survey was carried out to get the proportion of CSWs who attended selected STD clinics in the past three months.The number of CSWs was derived by dividing the number of CSWs among STD attendees within three months by the proportion of CSWs who attended selected STD clinics in the past three months.Results The number of counting through census and multiplier methods were 1 521 and 2 542 respectively.Conclusions Consus method is mathematically straightforward and can be less time and resources consuming.It is more suitable to be used in small cities or counties,but it has a tendency to underestimate real number.Multiplier method requires more information and more often needs additional special survey,and it may spend more time and money than the census method.Nevertheless,the multiplies method can use existing information and data,and its result is more reliable.