内蒙古自治区SARS传播模型建立及其干预措施评价研究

目的建立严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)传播和干预措评价的传播动力学模型。方法根据内蒙古自治区SARS传播实际,建立包括易感者、暴露者、密切接触且隔离者、感染者、医院隔离治疗者和康复或移出者和死亡者的SEQIJR模型,根据采取干预措施的时间将整个流行过程分成两个阶段,并以内蒙古自治区2003年流行数据估计模型参数和对模型进行评价。结果对第一阶段(3月4日-4月17日)数据模拟结果与SARS实际流行情况拟和较好,外推预测的误差为1.0,预计流行将持续230余天。利用两阶段模型模拟第二阶段SARS在当地的流行,拟合的,外推预测误差为2.0,预计在采取干预措施后SARS将在第55天停止流行。结论所建立的模型可以较好地模拟SARS在内蒙古自治区传播。通过建立的两阶段传播模型可以实现对所采取的干预措施的定量评价。

Dynamic of SARS spread in Inner Mongolia and evaluation of the effectiveness of intervention measures

Objective To develop dynamic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS)epidemic and used it to evaluate the effect of Intervention measures in Inner Mongolia.Methods a dynamic model,so call SEQIJR model involving in susceptible,exposure,quarantine,infectious,inpatient,recovery and death,was constructed,and was simulated the SARS epidemic and evaluated the effectiveness of intervention measures of SARS control within different two stages.The data of the SARS epidemic in Inner Mongolia in 2003 was used to estimate the parameter of the model and evaluated the models.Results the effect of simulation using the models in the each of two stages was satisfied and the error of predication is 1.0 and 2.0 respectively.According to the Results of simulation of the first stage,the epidemic of SARS would be eradicated after 230 days if the intervention had not been carried out.For contrast,the epidemic would be eradicated after 55 days if the integrate intervention measures were carried out.Conclusion The model of SARS epidemics seemed to be stable and reliable to be used to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures.