急性胰腺炎预后判断的多因素逐步回归分析

目的 探讨急性胰腺炎术前、中、后多种因素与预后的关系。方法 应用逐步回归分析法对我院经手术治疗的87例急性胰腺炎患者的病史、体征及治疗措施等多项指标进行分析,建立预测急性胰腺炎预后的方程式。结果 在调查的32个因素中有10项（胰腺炎病理类型和术后体温、嗜中性白细胞比率、营养方式和胆道病变性质、胆囊病变类型、胰腺皂化、麻醉方式、术前发热及患者年龄等）与急性胰腺炎恢复关系最大。结论 该回归方程对预测急性胰腺炎的预后及指导临床治疗、减少并发症和降低死亡率有重要的参考价值。

Regression analysis of manifold factors in judgment of prognosis of acute pancreatitis

Objective To explore the relation between manifold factors and the prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Methods Regression analysis of medical history and signs and treatment measures was made on the basis of 87 cases of laparotomies performed on acute pancreatitis, and the equation of forecasting acute pancreatitis prognosis was set up. Results 10 of 32 factors surveyed (the pathologic type of pancreatitis,body temperature and rate of neutrophil and nur-ishment mode of postoperation, pathologic character of biliary tract and gallbladder, saponification of pancreas, anesthetic method, fever at preoperative period and age of patients) bore close relation to the prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Conclusions The equation has important reference value for forecasting prognosis of acute pancreatitis, guiding its treatment and reducing complications and mortality.