洪涝灾害后疟疾流行早期预测的探讨

通过对 1989～ 1997年湖北省汉川市和老河口市的疟疾疫情资料分析 ,求出逐月及年疟疾病例之总合 ,并分别计算出逐月发病均数和标准差 ,以均数加标准差为标准绘出曲线 ,以此双曲线作为标准曲线与既往各年逐月的实际发病曲线相比较 ,找出各月疟疾上升的突破点。结果显示 ,平均数加两个标准差是疟疾上升的预警指标 ,此指标的准确性为 95 %。一般而言 ,湖北省回升预警点出现在每年的 4～ 5月 ,出现突破预警后需立即进行流行病学分析 ,并制定出针对性的防治对策 ,将疟疾控制在回升之初

EARLY WARNING INDICATOR FOR FORECASTING OF MALARIA EPIDEMICS AFTER FLOODING

Malaria cases data for the year 1989-1997 of Han Chuan City and Lao He Kou City were analysed to calculated the annual and monthly mean number of cases, standard deviation, and to make a standard graph. A comparative analysis between graph and normal incidence were make for an early forecasting indicator. The results showed that the monthly incidence made for an early forecasting indicator. The indicator is a breakthrough point and an available indication. It is believed that, the incidence in April is an important one in Hubei Province. If the number of cases had over indicated at that month, it is necessary to establish an appropriate control measures.