广东省人群疾病死亡因素的定量分析

目的定量分析人口因素和非人口因素对广东省人群疾病死亡变化的影响,为制定可行的防控措施提供依据。方法收集广东省1970—1972年和2004—2005年2次全国死因调查的资料,利用死亡率差别分解法计算出人口因素和非人口因素对各类疾病的贡献值和贡献率。结果2004—2005年广东省全死因死亡率为658．62／10万,1970—1972年为496．12／10万,死亡率上升均为人口因素的影响,其贡献率为138．48％。感染性疾病及母婴疾病死亡率下降72．92％,完全是非人口因素作用（107．11％）。慢性非传染性疾病死亡率上升122．15％,30年间其占总死因构成由51．04％上升到85．35％,人口因素与非人口因素起协同作用,各占58．64％和41．36％。其中,循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤死亡率非人口因素作用分别占46．32％和63．54％。结论非人口因素对广东省感染性疾病及母婴疾病死亡率下降起了巨大作用。慢性非传染性疾病对居民健康的威胁越来越大,需结合目前已知的可控非人口因素,采取切实可行的防治措施。

Quantitative analysis of factors affecting the mortality in residents of Guangdong Province

Objective To quantitatively analyze the demographic and non-demographic factors impacting the mortality in residents of Guangdong Province and to provide the basis for instituting the preventive measures. Methods The data of death cause investigations in Guangdong Province during 1970-1972 and 2004-2005 were collected. The difference decomposing of mortalities was used to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the mortalities of different diseases. Results The total mortalities of Guangdong Province during 1970-1972 and 2004-2005 were 658.62 per 100 000 and 496.12 per 100 000, respectively. The mortality enhance dued to demographic factor, and the contribution rate was 138.48%. The mortalities of infectious diseases and infant, mom diseases declined by 72.92% owing to non-demographic factors （107.11% ）. The mortality of chronic diseases increased by 122.15%, and the proportion in the total death causes raised from 51.04% to 85.35%. There was the synergistic effect between demographic and non- demographic factors. The proportions of demographic and non- demographic factors were 58.64% and 41.36%, respectively. In the mortalities of circulation system diseases and cancers, the proportions of non-demographic factors were 46.32% and 63.54%, respectively. Conclusion The non-demographic factors play an important role in decrease of infectious diseases and infant, morn diseases. The chronic diseases influence obviously the public health. The feasible preventive measures should be taken according to known non-demographic factors.