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| ARIMA模型在工伤职工人数分析中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 李晓翠,高琴,谢和宾,童瑶,王乐三. ARIMA模型在工伤职工人数分析中的应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2012, 19(11): 1622-1625 |
| 作者姓名： | 李晓翠 高琴 谢和宾 童瑶 王乐三 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中南大学公共卫生学院 湖南 长沙 410078 2. 中南大学湘雅三医院 3. 长沙市中心医院 |
| 摘 要： | 目的分析某省省级工伤医疗保险参保单位工伤职工人数的变化规律,预测其未来一年的工伤职工数量。方法应用SPSS 13.0对2005-2009年的工伤职工数建立ARIMA模型,分析其分布规律,并预测2010年的工伤职工人数。结果模型ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,2,0)12是合适的,参数具有统计学意义。结论 ARIMA模型能很好的拟合工伤人数的变化规律,为工伤事故预防提供有效依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 工伤 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 |
Application of ARIMA Model in the Analysis of the Amount of Injured Workers |
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| Affiliation: | LI Xiao - Cui , GAO Qin , XIE HE - Bin, et al. ( School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410078, Hunan , China ) |
| Abstract: | Objective To analyze the variations of the numbers of occupationally injured workers of one provincial medical insurance unit for forecasting its annual number in the future. Methods Autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model was established by SPSS 13.0 software with the numbers of occupationally injured workers during 2005 and 2009. Its;dis- tribution pattern was analyzed, and the injured number in 2010 was forecasted. Results The parameters of ARIMA（0, 1, 1） （1, 2, 0）12 model had statistical significance. It was feasible to match the past injured worker number sequence and forecast the future injured worker number. Conclusions ARIMA model perfectly matches the changing trend of the occupationally injured worker number, which provides an effective basis for occupational injury prevention. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Injury Time series analysis ARIMA model |
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