| Affiliation: | (1) Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, University of Florida, Gainesville;(2) Biostatistics at Mayo Clinic Rochester, Minnesota;(3) Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota;(4) Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic Rochester, 200 1st St SW, Rochester, Minnesota, 55905 |
| Abstract: | CA 19-9 has been used with questionable accuracy to aid diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma complicating primary sclerosing cholangitis. We aimed to characterize the test properties of CA 19-9 and of a change in CA 19-9 over time in predicting cholangiocarcinoma. Charts of 208 patients were reviewed. Fourteen patients had cholangiocarcinoma. Median CA 19-9 was higher with cholangiocarcinoma (15 vs. 290 U/ml, p < 0.0001). A cutoff of 129 U/ml provided: sensitivity 78.6%, specificity 98.5%, adjusted positive predictive value 56.6% and negative predictive value 99.4%. The median change over time was 664 U/ml in cholangiocarcinoma compared to 6.7 U/ml in primary sclerosing cholangitis alone (p < 0.0001). A cutoff of 63.2 U/ml for change in CA 19-9 provided: sensitivity 90%, specificity 98% and positive predictive value 42%. Only 2 patients with cholangiocarcinoma were the candidates for curative therapy. In conclusion, the positive predictive value of an elevated CA 19-9 was 56.6%; only advanced cases were detected by this method. |
