乳牙列龋病对早期第一恒磨牙龋病的预测研究

为了探讨乳牙列龋病对第一恒磨牙龋病的预测价值，本研究依据１６０名儿童５岁时乳牙列ｄｍｆｔ指数与其８、９或１０岁时第一恒磨牙ＤＭＦＴ指数的纵向资料，对乳牙龋病与第一恒磨牙龋病进行相关分析并计算以乳牙列龋病状况来预测第一恒磨牙龋病的特异性，敏感性，正确预测率，阳性及阴性预测值。结果显示：５岁时乳牙列ｄｍｆｔ与早期第一恒磨牙ＤＭＦＴ显著相关，敏感性与特异性之和最大值为１２８％，出现在ｄｍｆｔ为８时，此时

Caries prevalence in primary teeth as a predictor of early caries in permanent first molars

Aim:To examine the validity of employing the caries experience of the primary dentition for predicting early caries in the permanent first molars. Methods:The sample consists of 160 children. The caries prevalence in the primary dentition (dmft) at age 5 and in the permanent first molaers (DMFT) at age 8,9 or 10 were recorded. The correlation between the dmft and the DMFT was observed . The positive and negative predictive values as well as the sensitivity and specificity of different dmft values were calculated. Resuts: A positive relationship was obtained between the dmft and the DMFT of permanent first molars. At dmft values of 8, the maximum of sensitivity and specificity was 128%, Proportion correctly classified (PCC) was 64.4%. Conclusions:It is inaccurate to give or not caries- preventive concerns to an individual only according to the dmft value. A more effective prediction method including dmft and the caries risk factors should be established.