Activity flow mapping over probabilistic functional connectivity

Emerging evidence indicates that activity flow over resting‐state network topology allows the prediction of task activations. However, previous studies have mainly adopted static, linear functional connectivity (FC) estimates as activity flow routes. It is unclear whether an intrinsic network topology that captures the dynamic nature of FC can be a better representation of activity flow routes. Moreover, the effects of between‐ versus within‐network connections and tight versus loose (using rest baseline) task contrasts on the prediction of task‐evoked activity across brain systems remain largely unknown. In this study, we first propose a probabilistic FC estimation derived from a dynamic framework as a new activity flow route. Subsequently, activity flow mapping was tested using between‐ and within‐network connections separately for each region as well as using a set of tight task contrasts. Our results showed that probabilistic FC routes substantially improved individual‐level activity flow prediction. Although it provided better group‐level prediction, the multiple regression approach was more dependent on the length of data points at the individual‐level prediction. Regardless of FC type, we consistently observed that between‐network connections showed a relatively higher prediction performance in higher‐order cognitive control than in primary sensorimotor systems. Furthermore, cognitive control systems exhibit a remarkable increase in prediction accuracy with tight task contrasts and a decrease in sensorimotor systems. This work demonstrates that probabilistic FC estimates are promising routes for activity flow mapping and also uncovers divergent influences of connectional topology and task contrasts on activity flow prediction across brain systems with different functional hierarchies.