上海市徐汇区1995-2004年20岁以下人群白血病死亡率Poisson回归分析

[目的] 了解1995～2004年上海市徐汇区20岁以下人群白血病死亡率的时间变化趋势及其与性别、年龄的关系。 [方法]拟合Poisson回归模型,分析死亡人数与影响因素之间的关系。 [结果] 徐汇区10年间20岁以下人群白血病死亡率无随时间变化的趋势(z=0．38,P>0．5),女性死亡率低于男性(IRR=0．4706,P<0．1),0-4岁及5 ～9岁的死亡率均低于10～19岁者(IRR1=0．2308,IRR2=0．1538,P<0．05),每年因白血病死亡的20岁以下者平均2．5 人。 [结论] 徐汇区近10年20岁以下人群白血病死亡率稳定,但在性别和年龄上有差异;Poisson回归模型适用于类似资料的统计分析。

Analysis using Poisson regression model on leukaemia mortality of people under 20 years of age during 1995 -2004 in Xuhui district, Shanghai

[Objective] To investigate the time - trend of leukeamia mortality of people under 20 years of age, and to explore its relationship with age and gender during 1995-2004. [Methods] To fit a Poisson regression model to analyze the relationship between the death toll and factors. [Results] Poisson regression model showed no time - trend (z=0.38, P>0.5) in leukeamia mortality during the 10 years. The death toll of female was less than that of male (IRR=0.4706, P<0.1),children aged 0-4 and 5-9 were less than that of 10-19 in mortality,respectively (IRR1=0.2308, IRR2=0.1538,P<0.05).The annual death number in recent 10 years averaged 2.5. [Conclusion] The leukaemia mortality of people under 20 years of age showed no time -trend during 1995-2004, whereas it differs in gender and age. Poisson regression model is suitable to analyze such kind of data.