超声模型在甲状腺乳头状癌中央区淋巴结转移预测中的应用

目的建立甲状腺乳头状癌(PTC)患者中央区淋巴结转移的预测模型。方法回顾性分析于2018年1月至2019年1月在中国人民解放军总医院初次行甲状腺手术的855例PTC患者的临床资料,记录患者的临床特点及超声特征,采用逐步回归方法筛选中央区淋巴结转移高危因素,建立危险评分数学模型并评估其预测价值。结果多因素分析结果显示,患者的性别(P<0.001)、年龄45～55岁(P=0.004),≥55岁(P=0.003)、结节最大径1～2 cm(P<0.001)、最大径>2 cm(P=0.008)、结节多灶性(P=0.029)、合并微钙化(P=0.019)、微钙化呈弥漫性分布(P=0.001)和血流分级2～3级(P=0.002)均为建立模型的最强预测因素。在建模组中评估模型预测效能曲线下面积(AUC)为0.78(95%CI:0.74～0.82),在验证组中AUC为0.70(95%CI:0.67～0.76),模型预测效能良好。结论基于中央区淋巴结转移的危险因素建立了PTC患者中央区淋巴结转移的量化模型,根据模型对评分高的PTC患者可推荐行中央区淋巴结清扫术。

Application of Ultrasound Model for Predicting Central Compartment Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Objective To establish a predictive model for central compartment lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).Methods We retrospectively evaluated patients with histologically confirmed PTC treated in Chinese PLA General Hospital between January 2018 and January 2019.Totally 855 patients undergoing thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection were enrolled in this study (577 in the training cohort and 278 in the validation cohort).The clinical manifestations of the patients and the ultrasound features of the tumors were recorded.To predict the probability of CLNM,we developed the clinical-ultrasound model with significant factors selected by the stepwise logistic regression.The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was use to select the optimal model,and the area under the curve (AUC) and the calibration curves were used to evaluate the performance of the prediction model.Results Multivariate analysis showed that sex (P<0.001),age 45-55 years (P=0.004) or ≥55 years (P=0.003),tumor size 1-2 cm (P<0.001) or >2 cm (P=0.008),multifocality (P=0.029),microcalcification (P=0.019),diffused distribution of microcalcifications (P=0.001),and vascularity levels 2-3 (P=0.002) were effective for CLNM prediction.The model based on the clinical and ultrasound features showed good performance in both training cohort with AUC of 0.78 (95%CI:0.74-0.82) and validation cohort with AUC of 0.70 (95%CI:0.67-0.76).Conclusions A quantitative model of CLNM in PTC patients was established based on the risk factors.According to the model,central lymph node dissection is recommended for PTC patients with high scores.