广州市城区居民肺癌死亡率和发病率趋势分析及预测

目的 分析广州市城区居民肺癌死亡率和发病率的变化趋势，预测2016—2025年肺癌死亡率，为广州市制定肺癌防治策略提供依据。 方法 采用Joinpoint模型计算广州市城区居民模型2002—2015年肺癌发病率和1972—2015年肺癌死亡率的年度变化百分比（annual percent change，APC），分析其变化趋势。采用ARIMA模型预测2016—2025年肺癌死亡率。结果 1972—2015年，广州市城区肺癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势，由13.65/10万上升至56.11/10万（APC=3.3%，P<0.001）。2016—2025年肺癌粗死亡率仍呈逐年上升趋势，2025年将达65.78/10万，年均增长率为1.60%。2002—2015年，广州市城区肺癌粗发病率总体呈上升趋势，由51.84/10万上升至68.65/10万（APC=2.3%，P<0.05）。 结论 广州市城区居民肺癌死亡率在未来10年仍呈逐年增长趋势，过去13年肺癌发病率总体呈上升趋势，肺癌仍是威胁广州市城区居民健康的恶性肿瘤。

Trend analysis and prediction of lung cancer mortality and incidence in urban areas of Guangzhou

Objective To analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality among urban areas in Guangzhou and predict the mortality of lung cancer from 2016 to 2025 in order to provide baseline data for lung cancer prevention strategies. Methods The Joinpoint model was used to analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence from 2002 to 2015 and the trend of lung cancer mortality from 1972 to 2015 in Guangzhou urban areas by calculating the annual percentage change（APC）. The ARIMA model was used to predict the mortality of lung cancer in Guangzhou urban areas from 2016 to 2025. Results From 1972 to 2015，the crude mortality of lung cancer increased from 13.65/10⁵ to 56.11/10⁵（APC=3.3%，P<0.001）. It was predicted that the lung cancer mortality would continue to increase year by year in the future，and reach 65.78/10⁵ in 2025，with an average annual growth rate of 1.60%. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer increased during the period of 2002 to 2015 from 51.84/10⁵ to 68.65/10⁵（APC=2.3%，P<0.05）. Conclusions The mortality of lung cancer in urban areas of Guangzhou will continue to increase year by year in the next 10 years，and the incidence of lung cancer has increased in the past 13 years on the whole，and lung cancer still poses a threat to the health of urban residents in Guangzhou.