用捕获-再捕获法估计三峡库区居民出生和死亡水平

目的 评价出生死亡监测质量，校正三峡库区报告人口出生率和死亡率。方法 采用分层随机整群抽样方法，对抽取的7061户居民逐户调查人口出生和死亡情况，再与同期监测系统所报告的出生、死亡资料进行核对，计算漏报率以及总体出生率和死亡率95％可信区间（C1）。结果 三峡库区人群健康监测系统出生漏报率为13．91％，死亡漏报率为15．60％，婴儿死亡漏报率为33．33％。校正报告出生率为8．92‰，估计总体出生率95％CI：8．38‰～9．45‰，校正报告死亡率为6．88‰，估计总体死亡率95％CI：6．37‰～7．38‰。结论 三峡库区人群健康监测系统出生和死亡报告质量符合国家疾病监测点质量要求。2002—2004年三峡库区人口出生率和死亡率在10．00‰以下。

Estimation on the level of birth and death rates of population in the Three Gorges area by means of capture-mark-recapture method

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate quality of surveillance and emendate rates of birth and death of population of the Three Gorges area. METHODS: Data on the two samples collected were designed based on principle of capture-recapture method. An investigation of missing report of birth and death was conducted in 7061 families selected through stratified random sampling method. We collected and registered the data of birth and death in every family investigated and checked with correlative records reported in disease surveillance system of the Three Gorges area. The missing report rates and the 95% confidence intervals of birth rate and death rate were calculated. RESULTS: The underreporting rates of birth and death were 13.91% and 15.60% and death of infant was 33.33%. The emended birth rate was 8.92 per thousandth and the 95% confidence interval of birth rate was 8.38 per thousandth-9.45 per thousandth. The emended report rate of death was 6.88 per thousandth and the collectivity 95% confidence interval was 6.37%-7.38 per thousandth. CONCLUSION: Results showed that the quality of birth and death in the disease surveillance reporting system of Three Gorges area was competent to the quality level of the standard set for national disease surveillance system. The birth and death rates of population in the Three Gorges area were under 10.00 per thousandth.