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浙江省护士规模的预测研究
引用本文:沈清,李鲁,刘谷琮. 浙江省护士规模的预测研究[J]. 卫生软科学, 2001, 15(4): 51-53
作者姓名:沈清  李鲁  刘谷琮
作者单位:1. 浙江医学职业技术学院,浙江,杭州,310009
2. 浙江省卫生厅,浙江,杭州,310009
摘    要:目的:预测浙江省2000-2009年的护士规模,探讨影响护士规模的因素。方法:以浙江省1980-1999年每千人口护士数为研究基础。采用灰色数列GM(1,1)模型进行预测。并对预测结果进行国内外比较,结果:浙江省2004、2009年的每千人口护士数分别为1.2和1.5,2009年将赶上中等发达国家90年代中后期的平均水平,但与发达国家的水平有相当大的距离,结论:这样的护士规模将不能满足社会需求,应加强护理人员的培养。

关 键 词:卫生人力 护士规模 预测 浙江
文章编号:1003-2800(2001)04-51-03
修稿时间:2001-05-25

A Study on the Estimation of Nurse Scale of Zhejiang Province
Shen Qing,Li Lu,Liu Gu-cong. A Study on the Estimation of Nurse Scale of Zhejiang Province[J]. Soft Science of Health, 2001, 15(4): 51-53
Authors:Shen Qing  Li Lu  Liu Gu-cong
Abstract:Objective To estimate the nurse scale of Zhejiang province in 2000 - 2009 and explore the factors influencing the nurse scale. Method Based on the nurses per 1000 population of Zhejiang provinceis in the years of 1980 - 1999,Grey Dynamics Model(1,1)is used to estimate the scale. The result is also compared with other provinces and countries. Result The nurses per 1000 population of Zhejiang province is 1.2 in the year of 2004 and 1.5 in the year of 2009. This scale in 2009 will catch up with the average level of medium-developed countries in medium-later 1990's, but it is much lower than that of developed countries. Conclusion This nurse scale will not meet the needs of the province. The nurse training must be strengthened.
Keywords:health manpower  nurse scale  estimation
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