传染病预警模式的应用探讨

目的联合应用时间序列ARIMA模型以及控制图原理对传染病监测数据进行分析,探讨切实可行的传染病预警模式,实现对传染病的流行趋势进行预测,以期指导传染病的预防控制工作。方法收集筛选传染病的历史数据,利用时间序列ARIMA模型以及控制图原理,绘制控制图曲线,计算预警界值,预测疾病的流行趋势。结果利用建立的ARIMA模型初步确定疾病的年发病趋势后,可进一步根据绘制的控制图来确定实际疫情的流行趋势,综合传染病的严重性、危害性及可控制性及时作出反应。结论ARIMA模型与控制图法的联合应用,预警精度较高,是较好的传染病疫情预警模式。

Study on Early Warning Mode for Infectious Disease

Objective To discuss practical and feasible infectious disease early warning pattern for infectious disease epidemic trend by using control chart principle and time series ARIMA model to analyze the infectious disease surveillance data which may provide scientific basis for epidemic disease prevention and control.Methods Based on historical infectious disease data,alert threthold and diseases epidemic trend were determined by using time series ARIMA model and control chart principle.Then make response promptly according to gravity and control ability of infectious disease.Results After determining disease yearly morbidity tendency according to ARIMA model,actual epidemic situation was determined by using control chart subsequently.This combined using method improved early warning effects significantly.Conclusions Combined using ARIMA model and control chart method is a good early warning pattern which improves early warning effects significantly.