中国生育政策的文本量化分析——基于政策工具、政策包容性、政策力度的三维分析框架

目的：对我国实施全面二孩政策以来的生育政策进行文本量化分析，为完善我国生育政策提供建议。方法：检索2016年以来发布的国家层面的生育政策文本，构建政策工具、政策包容性、政策力度三维分析框架，并对政策文本进行多维度及交叉对比分析。结果：本文共纳入45份政策文本，命令及规制性工具、能力建设性工具、激励性工具和信息及劝诫性工具占比依次为50.90%、39.16%、9.34%和9.94%;政策文本在尊重生育理念、促进生育公平、提升社会福祉三个政策包容性类型上分别占比12.14%、20.39%、67.48%;我国生育政策力度平均得分为2.67。结论：生育政策的政策工具内部均衡性不足，激励性与信息及劝诫性工具的使用有待加强；政策包容性类型丰富但使用不均衡，需要进一步促进性别平等和生育公平；政策力度整体偏弱，且与政策主体协调性不足，应进一步深化多部门参与协作，从财政、教育、文化等多个层面落实好生育配套措施，创建生育友好型社会。

Text quantitative study of China's fertility policy: A three-dimensional analysis framework based on policy tools, policy inclusiveness, and policy strength

Objective: The study is to provide suggestions for improving China''s fertility policy system on the basis of a text quantitative analysis of China''s fertility policy texts since the implementation of the universal two-child policy. Methods: Upon retrieving policy texts released by State or central-level fertility after 2016, a three-dimensional analysis framework of policy tools, policy inclusiveness, and policy strength is constructed, within which multidimensional and cross-comparative analyses of policy texts were conducted. Results: A total of 45 policy texts are included, and the percentages of command and regulation tools, capacity construction tools, incentive tools, and information exhortation tools are 50.90%, 39.16%, 9.34%, and 9.94%, respectively; the percentages of policy texts falling into policy inclusiveness type regarding respect of concept of fertility, promotion of fertility equity, and enhancement of social well-being are 12.14%, 20.39%, and 67.48% respectively; the average strength of fertility policy scores 2.67. Conclusion: The internal balance of policy tools of fertility policy is insufficient, and the application of motivational and exhortation tools needs to be strengthened; policy inclusiveness is abundant but unevenly used, and gender equality and fertility equity need to be further promoted ; the overall policy strength is weak and coordination with policy subjects is insufficient, and multi-sectoral participation and collaboration should be further deepened, and supporting measures for childbirth should be implemented from the perspectives of finance, education, and culture to create a fertility-friendly society.