南昌市1998—2007年法定报告传染病的季节性分布研究

目的探讨南昌市1998—2007年霍乱、甲肝、菌痢、肾综合征出血热、乙脑和狂犬病等疾病的发病季节性规律。方法应用集中度分析方法探讨疾病的季节性，应用圆形分布法分析疾病发生的高峰时间分布。结果霍乱有严格的季节性，乙脑有很强的季节性，菌痢和狂犬病有一定的季节性，甲肝和出血热的季节性较差；以上疾病均存在高峰发病日；其中霍乱高峰发病月日是8月3日，乙脑为7月8日，95％可信时区分别为6月12日～8月24日和4月24日～9月21日。结论在疾病的高峰发病时间段，应加强卫生宣传和疾病监测，预防疾病发生。

Seasonal characteristics of legally reported communicable diseases in Nanchang from 1998 to 2007: a retrospective study

Objective To study the seasonal characteristics of cholera, Hepatitis A, bacillary dysentery, kidney syndrome hemorrhagic fever （HFRS）, and epidemic encephalitis B and rabies in Nanchang from 1998 to 2007. Methods The seasonal characteristics and the peak morbidity time distribution were analyzed respectively by the Concentration degree analysis and the Circular distribution. Results In terms of seasonal characteristics, cholera was strictly and epidemic encephalitis B stronly distributed, while bacillary dysentery had some indicdtions and Hepatitis A and HFRS were not obvious. All the above diseases had their peaks： cholera on August 3, and epidemic encephalitis B on July 8.95 % of cred- ible time zones were from June 12 to August 24 and April 24 to September 21 respectively. Conclusions Hygienic publisizing and disease surveillance should be strengthened, especially during morbidity peak time.