| 时间序列方法在卫生人力资源需求预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 凌莉,方积乾,汤泽群. 时间序列方法在卫生人力资源需求预测中的应用[J]. 中国卫生统计, 1999, 16(5): 266-268 |
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| 作者姓名： | 凌莉 方积乾 汤泽群 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中山医科大学卫生统计教研室 [2]广东省卫生厅 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 为制定广东省卫生资源的规划，进行优化配置，对全省卫生技术人员总数进行预测。方法 求和自回归滑动平均模型（ＡＲＩＭＡ）与多重发分析相结合。结果 广东省２０００年和２０１０年的卫技人数预测值分别为２５６８８０和３２３７３９人，或每千人口３．５人和４．０人。结论 ＡＲＩＭＡ模型在卫生人力资源需求预测中的应用是垢。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 卫生资源 人力资源 预测 |
Applying the Methodof Time Series to Forecast the Needs of Health Manpower |
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| Ling Li,Fang Jiqian,Tang Zequn et al.. Applying the Methodof Time Series to Forecast the Needs of Health Manpower[J]. Chinese Journal of Health Statistics, 1999, 16(5): 266-268 |
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| Authors: | Ling Li Fang Jiqian Tang Zequn et al. |
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| Abstract: | Objective The total number of health technical staffs of Guangdong province was forecasted for projecting health resource and optimizing allocation.Methods The model of autoregressive integrated moving average,incorporating the multiple regression analysis.Results The total number of health technical staffs of Guangdong province in 2000 and 2010 are expected to be 256 880 and 323 739 respectively ,or 3^5 and 4^0 person per thousand population.Conclusion It is feasible to use the ARIMA model to forecast the needs of health manpower. |
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| Keywords: | Time series ARIMA model Multiple regression analysis Forecasting Total number of health technical staffs |
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