安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征及其潜伏期估计

目的 分析2020年1月22日至2020年3月8日安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征并估计其潜伏期,为进一步认识新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播规律和制定区域性的疫情防控措施提供依据。 方法 基于安徽省及其各个地市卫生健康委员会官网公布的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例资料,采用空间自相关统计方法进行全局及局部聚集性分析,揭示安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征;根据病例的暴露和发病时间,估计新型冠状病毒肺炎潜伏期分布特征。 结果 安徽省共报告新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例990例,死亡病例6例,粗病死率为0.61%。自安徽省首例确诊病例以来,确诊人数迅速增多,2月6日出现单日最多确诊病例74例,而后逐渐下降。确诊病例年龄最小8个月,最大91岁,主要集中在31~60岁(65.19%),男女比1.16∶1,具有一定的聚集性,1月22日至1月29日期间,具有湖北省暴露史病例占比高达75%,随后明显下降。截至3月8日,安徽省16个地市均有确诊病例报告,其中合肥、阜阳、蚌埠为本次疫情受影响较大的地区,病例分布存在明显的空间自相关性。1月31日前,病例增长以湖北省输入病例为主,本土病例散在发生,随后逐渐转向本地接触传染扩散为主。Gamma分布拟合潜伏期效果较好,以此估计安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎的中位潜伏期为5.64(95%CI: 5.11~6.22)d。 结论 安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征与其他省份基本一致,前期疫情防控工作已取得阶段性成效,随着各地复工、复产等各项工作的推进,需巩固疫情防控成效,积极防治疫情反弹。

Epidemiological characteristics and incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 in Anhui Province

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incubation of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)from Jan. 22 to Mar. 8, 2020 in Anhui Province, in order to provide the basis for further understanding of the transmission pattern of COVID-19 and formulating regional control measures. Methods Based on the data released by the provincial and municipal health committees, global and local aggregation analyses were performed with spatial autocorrelation statistical method to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui. The distribution of COVID-19 incubation was estimated with reference to the exposure and onset time. Results A total of 990 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6 deaths were reported in Anhui. The crude mortality rate was 0.61%. Since the first case was confirmed, the number of cases increased rapidly, with a maximum of 74 in a single day on Feb. 6, and then gradually declined. The patients aged 8 months to 91 years, and the majority(65.19%)were 31 to 60 years old. The male to female ratio was 1.16∶1, and there were many cluster cases. From Jan. 22 to 29, 75% of the cases had exposure history to Hubei and then the proportion decreased significantly. By Mar. 8, there were confirmed cases in 16 cities, among which Hefei, Fuyang and Bengbu were mostly affected by the epidemic. There was obvious spatial autocorrelation of the cases. Before Jan. 31, most cases were imported from Hubei while local cases were sporadic, and then local contact spread the infection. The Gamma distribution fitted well, indicating the median incubation of COVID-19 was 5.64(95%CI: 5.11-6.22)days. Conclusion The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui Province are similar to those in other provinces. Early prevention and control measures have achieved phased results. With the resumption of work and production in various areas, the prevention and control efforts need to be consolidated to prevent the epidemic from rebounding.