| Abstract: | The prognostic value of several functional respiratory and haemodynamic variables was studied in a group of 212 patients with chronic bronchitis, who were examined in steady state, without cardiac or respiratory failure, at rest and when possible during moderate exercise (195 patients). Follow-up interval ranged from 5 to 12 years. Results were processed using two methods: estimation of actuarial survival rate and discriminant analysis. Survival rate curves for the patients showed a reduction relative to the general population of the same ages: 74% within five years compared to 91% in the general population, 56% within nine years compared to 82%. Survival rate was significantly lower in patients with PPA above 30 mmHg, or driving pressure (PPA--PW) above 15 mmHg, or pulmonary vascular resistance higher than 210 dyn . s . cm-5, or when PPA increased more than 10 mmHg during exercise. Discriminant analysis underlined the predictive value of three haemodynamic variables: PPA change from rest to exercise, pressure developed by the right heart (PPA--PRVED) and stroke volume: together, they predict the death of 3 over 4 patients with the criteria chosen. |
