Predicting cardiovascular risk in the elderly in different European countries.

AIMS: The objective of this study was to develop risk functions for coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality for elderly men in different European countries. METHODS and RESULTS: The FINE Study is a prospective follow-up study of 2170 elderly men aged 65-84 years in Finland, Italy and The Netherlands. During 10 years of follow-up 289 men died from coronary heart disease and 545 men from cardiovascular disease. Risk functions were estimated using logistic regression analysis, in order to take competing causes of death into account. The results of the present study show that total cholesterol and smoking were the most important predictors of coronary heart disease mortality, and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking of cardiovascular disease mortality. Left ventricular hypertrophy, being subject to coronary heart disease or cardiovascular disease in Finland and The Netherlands and use of antihypertensive medication in Italy, were also important predictors. For estimating the absolute risk of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality in the elderly it is necessary to take into account the European country in which they live. CONCLUSION: Total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking remain important predictors of coronary heart disease and/or cardiovascular disease mortality in elderly men, but also left ventricular hypertrophy, being subject to coronary heart disease, use of antihypertensive medication and country are predictive of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease risk.