香港脑血管病死亡率时间趋势研究

Time trend of mortality rates of cerebrovascular diseases in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVE: To describe the time trend of mortality rates of cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Hong Kong for the period of 1976 to 1995, and to compare them with those in the more developed countries around the world. METHODS: Mortality rates of CVD were standardized directly using world standard population in 1961. Annual percent changes of mortality rates of CVD were estimated with a non-linear regression. Birth-cohort analysis was carried out at an interval of five-year of age to compare their age-specific mortality rates of CVD in different birth cohorts. Time trend of cause-specific mortality rates of CVD both in males and females was fitted with a simple linear regression model. RESULTS: Considerable downward trend of CVD mortality was observed during the past twenty years. Mortality rates among men and women decreased by 50.96% and 37.85% in 1995, as compared to those in 1976, respectively. Although in general, a greater trend in CVD mortality was observed during the last 10 years, as compared with that in the previous 10 years, an annual increase in CVD mortality of 1.34% was found among males aged 35 to 44 years during the latter 10 years. CVD mortality for both males and females decreased steadily by 1% per year. CVD mortality for females will catch up with that for males by the year of 2013, if such a trend continues. Birth-cohort analysis showed that those born more recently at the same age-group had lower mortality of CVD (except for those born after 1955). Data from hospital admission showed that improvement in the treatment for CVD could have contributed partly to the decrease in its mortality. CONCLUSION: Time trend of mortality of CVD in Hong Kong was similar to that in many other economically developed areas around the world.