中医治疗晚期食道癌分析及预后判别

目的探索晚期食道癌中医药治疗预后生存期初步判别模型的思路与方法。方法将影响晚期食道癌预后的多个因素进行单因素检验,并将存在统计学意义的变量纳入,通过非参数判别分析的方法建立晚期食道癌中医治疗生存预测模型。72例晚期食道癌患者纳入研究,通过生存期分为优势人群、中间人群和劣势人群。结果单因素分析表明,发病部位是否包含食管上段、发病部位是否包含食管中段、癌细胞分化程度、转移部位、烫食、吸烟史、饮酒史、经中医治疗后症状自评、经中医治疗后情绪自评和是否肺转移具有统计学意义(α=0.1)。结论纳入中医特色证候要素后,通过7/3验证(70%样本做训练集,30%样本做验证集)建立了预测模型,预测准确率为56%。

Analysis and prognosis of advanced esophageal cancer treated by Traditional Chinese Medicine

Objective To explore the clinical strategy and method of the preliminary discrimination model of prognosis and survival in the treatment of advanced esophageal cancer with Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM).Methods Univariate test was performed on multiple factors affecting the prognosis of advanced esophageal cancer,and variables with statistical significance were included.Non-parametric discriminant analysis was used to establish a survival prediction model of traditional Chinese medicine treatment for advanced esophageal cancer.Totally 72 patients with advanced esophageal cancer were included in the study,which were divided into the dominant group,the intermediate group and the disadvantaged group based on the overall survival.Results Univariate analysis showed that location of onset(including upper esophagus),location of onset(including middle esophagus),differentiation degree of cancer cells,metastasis,hot food,smoking,drinking,symptom assessment after TCM treatment,emotion assessment after TCM treatment and lung metastasis showed statistical significance(α=0.1).Conclusions After incorporating the elements of TCM characteristic syndromes,the prediction model is established through 7/3 verification(70%samples as training set,30%samples as verification set),and the prediction accuracy is 56%.