天花生物恐怖风险下最优疫苗接种比例

天花是最危险的生物剂之一,目前全世界已经消除天花疾病,但发生天花生物恐怖袭击的可能性仍然存在.大规模接种天花疫苗是最有效的天花生物恐怖预防措施,但有可能会导致大量接种者产生严重的不良反应甚至死亡.因此,在存在天花恐怖事件可能性但尚未发生的当前,保有一定比例的天花免疫人群会减少真正发生时的整体损失.本文从最小化质量调整生命年损失的角度,探讨国家在不同天花生物恐怖袭击风险下应保有的最佳免疫人群比例.

Optimal proportion of immunized populations under different smallpox bioterrorist attack risks

Smallpox is one of the most dangerous biological agents. Although smallbox has been eliminated globally, the possibility of smallpox being used during a bioterrorist attack still exists. Large-scale smallpox vaccination is the most effec- tive measure against smallpox bioterrorism, but may lead to serious side effects and even death. Therefore, retaining a cer- tain proportion of immunized populations will reduce the overall losses in case of smallpox bioterrorist incidents. Based on minimized quality-adjusted life years losses, this article explored the optimal proportion of immunized populations that a country shoulol retain under the different smallpox bioterrorist attack risks.