Caries in fissures of permanent first molars as a predictor for caries increment

A group of 268 children were checked for caries experience at the age of 7.2 yr later at the age of 9 and 4 yr later at the age of 11 yr. Caries experience of fissures in permanent first molars at the age of 7 yr served as a screening criterion for caries increment between the ages of 7 and 11 yr. This screening resulted in a sensitivity of 0.62, a specificity of 0.82, and a diagnostic power of 0.83 for total caries increment in the permanent dentition and in a sensitivity of 0.68, a specificity of 0.80, and a diagnostic power of 0.78 for caries increment in fissures of permanent first molars. It was concluded that this screening offered the best method available for identifying children at risk from fissure caries in their permanent first molars. Cost effectiveness of preventive treatment directed towards individuals, for instance the application of fissure sealants, can be improved by using this screening method.