Prediction of Bone Loss Rate in Healthy Postmenopausal Women

Prevention of fractures is the only way to drastically reduce osteoporosis-related health expenditures. In order to optimize the cost/benefit ratio of a strategy of prevention, it is essential to identify, as early as possible, women who will develop fractures later in their life. Therefore, and since postmenopausal bone loss is an asymptomatic process, screening procedures should detect, at the time of the menopause, women whose postmenopausal bone loss is higher than the mean, and will, a couple of years later, exhibit a low mineral content and a subsequent high risk for fractures. For 3 years we have followed a cohort of 92 healthy women who had undergone menopause less than 36 months previously. By a multivariate discriminant analysis based on the differences in lumbar bone density, assessed by dual photon absorptiometry, and in a few routine biochemical parameters (serum phosphorus, estrone, androstenedione, and urine calcium) observed during the first 6 months of the study, we have been able to correctly predict the rate of spinal bone loss, observed at the end of the 3 years, in 76% of the subjects. All of the women who presented a bone loss higher than 10% over the 3 years were correctly isolated by our discriminant functions after 6 months of follow-up. We conclude that a measurement of lumbar bone mineral density coupled with a few routine biochemical determinations, repeated twice at a 6-month interval in healthy postmenopausal women, can isolate 100% of postmenopausal ``fast bone losers' with an overall specificity of 76%. Received: 22 December 1995 / Accepted: 23 September 1996