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Testing-Related and Geo-Demographic Indicators Strongly Predict COVID-19 Deaths in the United States during March of 2020
Authors:James B. Hittner  Folorunso O. Fasina  Almira L. Hoogesteijn  Renata Piccinini  Dawid Maciorowski  Prakasha Kempaiah  Stephen D. Smith  Ariel L. Rivas
Abstract:The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc around the globe and caused significant disruptions across multiple domains[1]. Moreover, different countries have been differentially impacted by COVID-19 — a phenomenon that is due to a multitude of complex and often interacting determinants[2]. Understanding such complexity and interacting factors requires both compelling theory and appropriate data analytic techniques. Regarding data analysis, one question that arises is how to analyze extremely non-normal data, such as those variables evidencing L-shaped distributions. A second question concerns the appropriate selection of a predictive modelling technique when the predictors derive from multiple domains (e.g., testing-related variables, population density), and both main effects and interactions are examined.
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