高空减压病概率模型

目的 研究高空飞行时减压病发病的概率或危险度，建立概率模型。方法 用生存分析方法分析高空减压病的信息。结果 减压病危险度先是增加，到一定时间后，再因吸氧排氮而减少。风险函数可以叙述这种变化特点。高空减压病概率模型的参数用最大的似然法估算。结论 以对数ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ分布为基础的生存模型，预测能力良好。

Probability Models for Altitude Decompression Sickness

Objective To study the probability or risk of decompression sickness in high altitude flight and to establish a probability model. Method Survival analysis technique was used in the analysis of the information about altitude decompression sickness. Result It was found that the risk of decompression sickness initially increases up to a certain time point,and then decreases because of denitrogenation.The hazard function may describe the characteristics of this pattern in changes of risk.The parameters of probability models for altitude decompression sickness can be estimated by using the maximum likelihood method. Conclusion Prediction with the survival models based on the logistic distribution is good.