江陵县血吸虫病疫情时空聚集性分析

目的 目的 分析2006-2011年湖北省江陵县血吸虫病疫情的时空分布特点。 方法 方法 收集整理2006-2011年江陵县血吸虫病监测数据， 建立空间数据库， 导入SaTScan 9.1.1软件进行时空重排扫描聚集分析， 确定血吸虫病发生的时空聚集性， 并采用ArcGIS 10.0软件制作风险地图。 结果 结果 2011年江陵县人群和耕牛血吸虫感染率、 钉螺感染率较2006年分别下降了47.67%、 93.34%和52.41%。时空聚集性分析显示， 2006-2011年上述3个指标在时空分布上均存在聚集性， 分别探测出4、 3个和4个聚集区域， 均分布于垸内。 结论 结论 2006-2011年江陵县血吸虫病疫情呈现下降态势， 探测发现的聚集性区域是该县血吸虫病防治的重点区域。提示， 时空重排扫描统计可用于血吸虫病疫情分析。

Spatial-time cluster analysis of distribution of schistosomiasisin Jiangling County

Objective Objective To analyze the spatial?time distribution characteristics of schistosomiasis in Jiangling County，HubeiProvince from 2006 to 2011. Methods Methods The surveillance data of schistosomiasis of Jiangling County from 2006 to 2011 were col?lected，and a spatial database was established. The spatial?time permutation cluster analysis was performed by SaTScan 9.1.1 todetect the spatial?time cluster areas of schistosomiasis，and a risk map was drawn by ArcGIS 10.0. Results Results Compared to 2006，the infection rates of human，cattle and Oncomelania hupensis snails decreased by 47.67%，93.34% and 52.41%，respectivelyin 2011. The space? time permutation clustering analysis of the infection rates of human，cattle and snails showed 4，3 and 4clusters，respectively，and all the clustered areas were distributed in inner embankment areas. Conclusions Conclusions From 2006 to2011，the schistosomiasis endemic situation presents a decline trend in Jiangling County. The detected cluster areas are the im?portant areas for schistosomiasis control. The space?time permutation statistics could be used in the analysis of endemic situationof schistosomiasis.