POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率预测能力的比较

目的 比较并发症和病死率的生理和手术严重性评分(physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity,POSSUM)、并发症和病死率的生理和手术严重性评分(Portsmouth POSSUM,P-POSSUM)、结直肠切除的并发症和病死率的生理和手术严重性评分(colorectal POSSUM,Cr-POSSUM)对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率的预测能力.方法 调查北京大学第三医院1992-2005年903例结直肠癌外科手术切除的资料.903例中,结肠癌518例,直肠癌385例.用ROC曲线分析判断评分的判别能力,用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断评分的拟合优度,用不同危险因素群的O∶E值判断评分的预测能力.结果 903例患者住院期间的病死率为1.0%(9/903).POSSUM、P-POSSUM、Cr-POSSUM预测的病死率分别为5.6%、2.8%、4.8%,三种评分预测的病死率明显高于实际的病死率,O:E值分别为0.18、0.35、0.2.结论 POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM在结直肠癌手术中预测的病死率高于实际病死率.

In-hospital morbidity and mortality for patients of colorectal cancer evaluated by three different POSSUM models

objective To compare three risk prediction system,the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity(POSSUM),the Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM)and the colorectal POSSUM(Cr-POSSUM)for the accuracy in predicting operative mortality of patients of colorectal cancer in a single Chinese referral hospital setting. Methods Data of 903 patients,who undergone surgery for colon and rectal cancers from 1992 to 2005 at Peking University Third Hospital,were enrolled in the study.POSSUM,P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM was used respectively to predict the mortality rate.ROC curve was applied to judge the differentiation ability of each score.Model goodness-or-fit was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic and subgroup analysis was performed by the ratio of observed to expected deaths(O∶E ratio). Results The actual inhospital mortality in our series was 1.0%(9/903).The oredicted mortality rate by POSSUM,P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM were 5.6%,2.8% and 4.8%respectively.These predicted mortality rate were significantly higher than actual mortality of our patients.The O∶E ratio was 0.18,0.35 and 0.2 respectively. Conclusion The predicted mortality rate of POSSUM,P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM were significantly higher than actual observed mortality rate in a single Chinese referral hospital for patients of colorectal cancer.