Is fecundability associated with month of birth? An analysis of 19th and early 20th century family reconstitution data from The Netherlands |
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Authors: | Smits LJ; Van Poppel FW; Verduin JA; Jongbloet PH; Straatman H; Zielhuis GA |
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Institution: | Department of Medical Informatics, Epidemiology and Statistics, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. |
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Abstract: | The relationship between fecundability and month of birth was investigated
in a cohort of 1526 women who married between 1802 and 1929, using only
women whose first marriage occurred before the age of 35 years. On the
basis of their time to pregnancy (TTP, calculated as time between wedding
and first birth minus gestational length), women were categorized into two
groups: fecunds (TTP up to 12 months or prenuptial conceptions, n = 1348)
and subfecunds (TTP >18 months, n = 118). By use of logistic regression,
cosinor functions with a period of 1 year or 6 months and variable shift
and amplitude were fitted through the monthly odds of subfecunds versus
fecunds. The best fitting curve was unimodal, with a zenith in September (P
= 0.13 for H0: no differences). Exclusion of childless women (n = 36,
minimum follow-up 5 years) from the subfecunds led to a similar curve (P
< 0.01), while childless women, as compared with fecunds, showed a birth
distribution that was best represented with a bimodal curve with zeniths in
January and July (P = 0.06). This study provides evidence for the existence
of differences in fecundability by month of birth. The cause of this
relationship is unclear, but may lie in a melatonin-dependent circannual
variability of the quality of the oocyte.
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