天津港国际航行船舶卫生风险分析及评估模型的建立

目的通过对天津港2010年所有入境国际航行船舶资料进行分析,找出影响船舶卫生状况的风险因素,并建立数学模型。方法利用AMOS建立数学模型,应用主成分分析与多元回归方法对资料进行统计分析,最终得到国际航行船舶卫生风险数学模型。结果筛选船员国籍、船舶经营者、来自疾病流行区、月份、船龄等16个危险因素,建立了结构方程模型。结论通过建立影响国际航行船舶卫生风险的数学模型,使入境国际航行船舶卫生风险定量化。

Report of hazard analysis and establishment on predicting model of health risk of entry-exit vehicles at Tianjin Port

Objective Based on the data analysis in 2010, and to find out the risk factors which influence the sanitary conditions of the Entry-exit Vehicles, and to set up predicting model. Methods Based on the model of AMOS, principal component analysis and multivariate analysis were conducted, and the mathematical model was established based on the hazard-analysis theory. Results From statistics analysis, a total of 16 risk factors were identified such as crews ’ nationalities, manager, coming from epidemic region, the month of disembarking, the years of shipping service, etc, and established the mathematical model. Conclusion Using the relative model, we can quantify the health risk and the corresponding risk factors on Entry-exit vehicles.