| 基于ARIMA模型的医院门诊量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 周青,陈秋,叶小云,吴青松. 基于ARIMA模型的医院门诊量预测[J]. 中国病案, 2011, 12(1): 51-52 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周青 陈秋 叶小云 吴青松 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省温州医学院附属第一医院病案室,温州市,325000 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的分析医院门诊量的变化规律,预测其未来1年-2年的门诊量。方法应用SPSS13.0软件对1999年-2009年门诊量进行ARIMA模型的建模拟合,用所得到的模型预测2010年、2011年月门诊量。结果 ARIMA（0,1,1）（1,1,0）模型很好的拟合了以往的门诊量序列,参数具有统计学意义。结论 ARIMA模型能很好的拟合门诊量变化趋势,为医院管理提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 门诊量 预测 |
A Forecast of Hospital Outpatient Number Based on ARIMA Mode |
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| Zhou Qing,Chen Qiu,Ye Xiaoyun,Wu Qingsong. A Forecast of Hospital Outpatient Number Based on ARIMA Mode[J]. Chinese Medical Record, 2011, 12(1): 51-52 |
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| Authors: | Zhou Qing Chen Qiu Ye Xiaoyun Wu Qingsong |
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| Affiliation: | Zhou Qing,Chen Qiu,Ye Xiaoyun,Wu Qingsong,Medical Records Room,the First Hospital Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical College,Wenzhou,Zhejiang,325000 |
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| Abstract: | Objective to analyze changing law of hospital outpatient number for forecasting its number in the future 1 to 2 years.Methods to apply SPSS13.0 software for outpatient number modeling and matching of ARIMA mode from 1999 to 2009;to forecast outpatient number in 2010 and 2011 by using the mode.Result ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0) mode is perfectly match the past outpatient number sequence,which parameter has statistical meaning.Conclusion ARIMA mode match perfectly outpatient number changing trend,providing basis for ... |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA mode outpatient number forecast |
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