Development of a decision tree to classify the most accurate tissue-specific tissue to plasma partition coefficient algorithm for a given compound

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling is a tool used in drug discovery and human health risk assessment. PBPK models are mathematical representations of the anatomy, physiology and biochemistry of an organism and are used to predict a drug’s pharmacokinetics in various situations. Tissue to plasma partition coefficients (Kp), key PBPK model parameters, define the steady-state concentration differential between tissue and plasma and are used to predict the volume of distribution. The experimental determination of these parameters once limited the development of PBPK models; however, in silico prediction methods were introduced to overcome this issue. The developed algorithms vary in input parameters and prediction accuracy, and none are considered standard, warranting further research. In this study, a novel decision-tree-based Kp prediction method was developed using six previously published algorithms. The aim of the developed classifier was to identify the most accurate tissue-specific Kp prediction algorithm for a new drug. A dataset consisting of 122 drugs was used to train the classifier and identify the most accurate Kp prediction algorithm for a certain physicochemical space. Three versions of tissue-specific classifiers were developed and were dependent on the necessary inputs. The use of the classifier resulted in a better prediction accuracy than that of any single Kp prediction algorithm for all tissues, the current mode of use in PBPK model building. Because built-in estimation equations for those input parameters are not necessarily available, this Kp prediction tool will provide Kp prediction when only limited input parameters are available. The presented innovative method will improve tissue distribution prediction accuracy, thus enhancing the confidence in PBPK modeling outputs.