某医院住院人数长期趋势模型的建立和预测

目的用时间序列建立住院人数线性回归模型,预测2014、2015、2016、2017年的住院人数。方法用最小二乘法建立线性模型,并对模型进行回归分析。结果回归模型Y=13 067.28+2 511.04X,方差分析结果 P=0.0025,按?=0.05水准,P0.05,可以认为住院人数与年次有直线回归关系。某院2014、2015、2016、2017年的住院人数点预测值分别为33 156.60、35 666.64、38 177.68、40 688.72;区间预测为27 314.59~38 996.61、29 825.63~41 507.65、32 336.67~44 018.69、34 847.71~46 529.73。结论通过预测住院人数为医院的工作计划和决策提供依据,使卫生资源得到合理应用。

The establishment and predicting a hospital inpatients long-term trend model

Objective Establishment of inpatients in linear regression model with time series,prediction of inpatients number in 2014、2015、2016、2017.Methods A linear model is established by least square method,and analysis the model of regression.Results Regression model Y=13 067.28＋2 511.04 X,the results of variance analysis P=0.0025,according to the α=0.05 standard,P〈0.05,can be considered the number of the years hospital inpatients point predictive values were hospitalized at 33156.60,35666.64,38177.68,40688.72 in 2014,2015,2016,2017;interval prediction numb er were 27 314.59-38 996.61,29 825.63-41 507.65,32 336.67-44 018.69,34 847.71-46 529.73.Conclusion By predicting the inpatients number to provide the basis for the work of the hospital planning and decision making,obtained the health resources to be the reasonable using.