2014—2017年广州市气象因素、休市措施与H7N9禽流感发病相关性研究

目的 了解广州市2014—2017年人感染H7N9禽流感发病流行特征,利用负二项回归分析气象因素、休市措施与H7N9禽流感发病间的影响关系,为广州H7N9禽流感防控提供参考依据。 方法 收集并分析2014—2017年广州市人感染H7N9禽流感发病信息,以及同期的气象数据,通过交叉相关分析筛选影响因素,应用负二项回归模型分析气象、休市措施与H7N9禽流感发病的相关性。 结果 广州共报告43例人感染H7N9禽流感病例,发病时间以1-2月为主(35例,81.40%),男女比为2.07∶1。负二项回归模型分析显示,周平均气温[β=-0.282,95%CI:(-0.404,-0.160)]、周平均风速[β=-1.277,95%CI:(-2.290,-0.263)]和休市措施[β=-1.265,95%CI:(-2.417,-0.113)]是H7N9发病数的影响因素(P<0.05)。 结论 2014—2017年广州市H7N9发病与周平均气温、周平均风速及临时性休市措施存在关联,研究结果可应用于H7N9的发病预测,同时为政府制定H7N9禽流感防控措施提供参考依据。

Correlation of meteorological factors and temporary closure of poultry markets with the incidence of H7N9 avian influenza in Guangzhou city, 2014-2017

Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of human infection with avian influenza A H7 N9 virus in Guangzhou city from 2014 to 2017,to analyze the effects of meteorological factors and temporary closure of poultry markets on the incidence of H7 N9 avian influenza by using negative binomial regression model,and to provide a reference basis for prevention and control of H7 N9 avian influenza.Methods The information about the incidence of human infection with avian influenza A H7 N9 virus and the meteorological data in Guangzhou city during 2014-2017 were collected and analyzed.Cross-correlation analysis was performed to determine the influencing factors.The negative binomial regression model was employed to analyze the correlation of meteorological factors and temporary closure of poultry markets with the incidence of H7 N9 avian influenza.Results A total of 43 cases of human infection with avian influenza A H7 N9 virus were reported in Guangzhou city,and most of the cases occurred in January and February(n=35,81.40%).The male-to-female sex ratio was 2.07:1.00.Analysis based on the negative binomial regression model showed that the weekly average temperature(β=-0.282,95%CI:-0.404-0.160),the weekly average wind velocity(β=-1.277,95%CI:-2.290-0.263)and temporary closure of poultry markets(β=-1.265,95%CI:-2.417-0.113)were the factors affecting the incidence of H7 N9 avian influenza(P<0.05).Conclusions The incidence of H7 N9 avian influenza in Guangzhou city in 2014-2017 was associated with the weekly average temperature,the weekly average wind velocity and temporary closure of poultry markets.The results can be used to forecast the incidence of H7 N9 avian influenza,and simultaneously provide a reference basis for the government to formulate prevention and control measures against H7 N9 avian influenza.