2012—2018年肇庆市端州区心脑血管疾病死亡状况及趋势分析

目的 分析2012—2018年肇庆市端州区心脑血管疾病死亡情况及变化趋势,为制定心脑血管疾病预防控制措施提供依据。方法 收集2012—2018年肇庆市端州区死亡登记资料,分析心脑血管疾病粗死亡率、标化死亡率及年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC),预计2022年及2030年心脑血管疾病死亡率。结果 2012—2018年肇庆市端州区心脑血管疾病户籍人口平均粗死亡率为180.45/10万(男性203.79/10万、女性156.72/10万、心脏病99.27/10万、脑血管病81.18/10万),粗死亡率呈上升趋势,APC为0.40%,趋势变化差异无统计学意义(P=0.693);平均标化死亡率为81.94/10万(男性102.91/10万、女性60.81/10万、心脏病45.03/10万、脑血管病36.90/10万),标化死亡率呈下降趋势,APC为-2.66%,趋势变化差异有统计学意义(P=0.011)。除80～84岁组外,35岁以上各年龄组男性粗死亡率均高于女性(P<0.05)。心脑血管疾病粗死亡率均随着年龄增加而上升,趋势变化差异有统计学意义(P=0.000)。按照2012—2018年变化速度预测,2022年肇庆市端州区心脑血管疾病粗死亡率为191.13/10万,2030年为201.64/10万。结论 应采取有针对性的心脑血管疾病防治措施,有效降低心脑血管疾病发病率及死亡率,以达到健康中国行动的控制目标。

Death status and trend of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Duanzhou district of Zhaoqing city, 2012-2018

Objective To analyze the death status and changing trend of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Duanzhou district of Zhaoqing city from 2012 to 2018, and to provide a basis for formulating measures for prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Methods We collected the registered data regarding deaths in Duanzhou district of Zhaoqing city from 2012 to 2018, then analyzed the crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate and annual percentage change (APC) of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and finally predicted the mortality rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in 2022 and 2030. Results The average crude mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in household registered population in Duanzhou district of Zhaoqing city during 2012-2018 was 180.45/100,000 (therates in males, females, cardiovascular diseases and cerebrovascular diseases were 203.79/100,000, 156.72/100,000,99.27/100,000 and 81.18/100,000, respectively). The crude mortality rate showed an upward trend, APC was 0.40%, and no statistically significant difference was found in the trend change (P=0.693). The average standardized mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was 81.94/100,000 (the rates in males, females, cardiovascular diseases and cerebrovascular diseases were 102.91/100,000, 60.81/100,000, 45.03/100,000 and 36.90 /100,000, respectively). The standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend, APC was -2.66%, and there were statistically significant differences in the change trend (P=0.011). Apart from the age group of 80-84 years, the crude mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were higher in males than in females in the age groups of 35 years or above (P<0.05). The crude mortality rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased with the increasing age, and the differences in the trend change were statistically significant (P=0.000). On the basis of the average annual change rate from 2012 to 2018, it was predicted that the mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Duanzhou district of Zhaoqing city in 2022 and 2030 would be 191.13/100,000 and 201.64/100,000, respectively. Conclusions It is necessary to adopt targeted prevention and control measures for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases so as to effectively reduce the incidence and mortality rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and achieve control target of the healthy China action.