2010-2018年浙江省人感染布鲁氏菌病空间分布特征及影响因素研究

目的 分析浙江省2010—2018年人间布鲁氏菌病空间分布特征及影响因素,为相应防控策略制订提供科学依据。方法 收集浙江省2010—2018年法定传染病报告系统中人间布鲁氏菌病疫情资料,采用全局、局部空间自相关分析方法进行分析;收集浙江省气象、畜牧生产等资料,进行人间布病疫情的空间回归分析。结果 2010—2018年,浙江省共报告布鲁氏菌病823例,年度报告发病数呈波动上升态势;人群特征显示病例以男性、40～60岁、农牧民及畜牧相关职业为主;发病率全局Moran’s I指数为0.12(P＜0.05),总体分布呈现聚集性;局部空间自相关结果显示人间布病高聚集区主要为浙北杭嘉湖、绍兴及浙西的衢州等地区,且近年向浙南的丽水扩散;空间回归分析显示,地区“年内羊出栏量”为人间布病发病的促进因素。结论 人间布病疫情与羊的养殖、交易、加工产业密切相关,浙江省布病疫情的地区分布特征随着各地相关产业的发展也在发生着变化,因此需要在发展相关产业时同步规划落实好布病防控措施。

Spatial distribution characteristics and spatial autocorrelation analyses of human brucellosis in Zhejiang Province, 2010-2018

The study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and influence factors of human brucellosis in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2018, and to provide evidences for the strategies and measures for the prevention and control of human brucellosis. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to analyze the data of human brucellosis in Zhejiang Province during 2010-2018, and the spatial regression analysis was used to find the relationship between the morbidity of human brucellosis and meteorological factors/animal husbandry output. A total of 823 human brucellosis cases were reported during 2010-2018 with an annual fluctuant increasing trend in Zhejiang Province. The population characteristics showed that the cases were mainly male, aged between 40 and 60, farmers and herdsmen, and the occupations related to animal husbandry. The global Moran’s I coefficient for the incidence was 0.12, suggesting a significant spatial clustering of the incidences. The local autocorrelation analysis showed that high-high clustering areas were mainly distributed in the northern and western parts of Zhejiang Province (Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou), and then expanded to Lishui, a city in the south of Zhejiang. The spatial regression analysis showed that annual sheep output was positively correlated with the incidence of human brucellosis. The epidemic situation of human brucellosis was affected by sheep breeding, trading, processing, and other industries. The regional distribution characteristics of human brucellosis were changing with the development of related industries in Zhejiang province. It’s very important to plan and implement the prevention and control measures for brucellosis, with the development of animal husbandry and other industries.