基于集中度和圆形分布法的杭州市流感病原学特征分析

目的 了解并分析杭州市流感病原学流行特征及季节性变化趋势,为流感防制工作的科学决策提供参考依据。方法 应用集中度和圆形分布法对2010年1月至2020年12月杭州市的流感病原学监测数据进行分析。结果 2020年(M=0.98,r=0.98)与2018年(M=0.93,r=0.88)流感病原阳性检出率有严格季节性,2013年(M=0.75,r=0.62)有很强的季节性,2011年(M=0.67,r=0.62)和2016年(M=0.61,r=0.46)有明显的季节性,2010、2015和2017年则季节性不明显。除2013和2015年外,其余年份高峰均出现在第一季度,且大部分高峰日期出现在每年1月。检出最多的型别为甲型H3N2型(1631/4054),其次为乙型(1535/1631),再次为甲型H1N1型(878/4054)。三种型别交替占优。结论 杭州市流感高峰主要出现在冬春季,且不同病原型别交替出现,应在高峰期来临前进行流感疫苗接种,并加强监测。

Analysis of etiological characteristics of influenza in Hangzhou based on concentration and circular distribution

Objective To investigate and analyze the epidemiological characteristics and seasonal trends of influenza etiology in Hangzhou in order to provide references for scientific decision-making on influenza prevention and control.Methods The concentration and circular distribution methods were used to analyze the influenza etiology surveillance data in Hangzhou from January 2010 to December 2020.Results The positive detection rates of influenza pathogens in 2020 (M=0.98,r=0.98) and 2018(M=0.93,r=0.88) were strictly seasonal.There was strong seasonality in 2013 (M=0.75,r=0.62).There was obvious seasonality in 2011 (M=0.67,r=0.62) and 2016(M=0.61,r=0.46),while the seasonality was not obvious in 2010,2015 and 2017.Except for 2013 and 2015,the peaks of other years occurred in the first quarter,and most peaks occurred in January each year.The most detected type was type A H3N2 (1631/4054),followed by type B (1535/1631),and type A H1N1(878/4054) again.The three types alternately dominated.Conclusion The influenza peaks in Hangzhou mainly occur in winter and spring,and different disease types alternately occur.Influenza vaccination should be implemented before the peak period,and monitoring should be strengthened.