辽宁省甲型病毒性肝炎流行特征及疫情预测

目的分析甲肝流行特征,预测甲肝疫情,提出针对性防制措施,以降低甲肝发病率。方法利用全省疫情资料及人口资料,采用总体统计和各年代统计分析方法。结果1994年以来辽宁省甲肝流行规律发生明显变化,7～8年一个流行高峰规律及秋冬季高峰现象明显消失,现流行高峰以春季为主,沿海地区和城市发病高于内地和农村,发病人群年龄组后移,15～30岁年龄组甲肝发病人数占70%。甲肝发病数占病毒性肝炎构成比明显下降。预测辽宁省仍然存在甲型肝炎暴发及流行可能。结论历史流行规律明显消失,发病率下降,暴发疫情明显减少。应积极开展以甲肝疫苗接种为主的综合性防制措施。

Forecast on Epidemic Characteristics and Situation of Type A Viral Hepatitis in Liaoning Province

Objective This study was to analyze the epidemic characteristics of type A hepatitis, predict its epidemic situation and put forward pertinent preventive and control measures to reduce the morbidity of hepatitis A. Methods Collective and yearly statistical analysis was utilized in terms of epidemic situation and population data of the whole province. Results Since 1994, obvious changes had taken place in the epidemic rule of hepatitis A in Liaoning: the epidemic peak over 7-8 years and the peak in fall and winter disappeared apparently, with a peak occurring in spring currently. The onset in littoral regions and cities was higher than that of inland and countryside. The onset population displayed a backward shift in age and the number of onsets of hepatitis A in the 15-30 year old group accounted for 70% of the total. The composition rate of onsets of hepatitis A in viral hepatitis declined notably. It was predicted that the possibility of outbreak and epidemic of hepatitis A in Liaoning still existed. Conclusion The epidemic rule of hepatitis A seen in the past has vanished and the incidence decreases with a significant reduction of the epidemic outbreak. Still we should actively carry out comprehensive prevention and cure measures, focusing on inoculation of hepatitis A vaccines.