血清IL-33水平对动脉粥样硬化性脑梗死患者预后的预测价值

［摘要］目的: 探究血清IL 33在预测动脉粥样硬化性脑梗死(atherosclerotic cerebral infarction，ACI)患者预后中的应用价值。方法: 收集142例ACI患者的临床资料，所有患者入院后行美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS)评分，并采用ELISA法检测血清IL 33水平。在出院90 d后进行改良Rankin量表(mRS)评分，根据mRS评分分为预后良好组(n=69)和预后不良组(n=73)，分别对两组患者基线期一般资料和血清学资料进行比较。对NIHSS评分与血清IL 33水平行Pearson相关性分析，并通过Logistic回归分析影响ACI患者预后的因素，绘制血清IL 33水平的ROC曲线。 结果： 预后不良组年龄、既往脑梗死病史和入院时NIHSS评分明显高于预后良好组(P均＜0.05)，血清IL 33水平明显低于预后良好组(P＜0.01)。血清IL 33水平与入院时NIHSS评分呈负相关(r=-0.581, P＜0.01)。入院时NIHSS评分是预后不良的危险因素(P＜0.01)，而血清IL 33水平是保护因素(P＜0.01)。ROC曲线下面积为0.835，敏感性为91.3%，特异性为72.5%。结论： 血清IL 33水平降低可作为预测ACI患者预后不良的指标。

Predictive value of serum interleukin-33 levels in the patientswith atherosclerotic cerebral infarction

[Abstract]Objective: To explore the prognostic value of serum IL 33 in the prediction of the patients with atherosclerotic cerebral infarction (ACI). Methods: A total of 142 patients with ACI were enrolled. Their clinical data and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) were collected, and the serum IL 33 level was detected by ELISA before treatment. Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score was performed 90 days, and the patients were divided into the good prognosis group (n=69) and the poor prognosis group (n=73) according to mRS score. The general baseline data and serological data of the patients in the two groups were compared, respectively. The Spearman correlation between NIHSS score and IL 33 level was analyzed, and Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors which influence the prognosis of the patients with ACI and the ROC curve of serum IL 33 level was further plotted. Results: Age, past history of cerebral infarction and NIHSS score in poor prognosis group were higher than those in good prognosis group (P<0.05), and the serum IL 33 level was significantly lower than those in good prognosis group (P<0.01). IL 33 level was negatively correlated with the NIHSS score at admission(r=-0.581, P<0.01). Higher NIHSS score at admission was a risk factor for poor prognosis (P<0.01), while higher serum IL 33 level was a protective factor (P<0.01). The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve was 0.835, the sensitivity was 91.3%, and the specificity was 72.5%. Conclusion: The decreased serum IL 33 levels could be used as a predictor of poor prognosis for patients with ACI.