Preoperative nomogram for the identification of lymph node metastasis in early cervical cancer |
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Authors: | D-Y Kim S-H Shim S-O Kim S-W Lee J-Y Park D-S Suh J-H Kim Y-M Kim Y-T Kim J-H Nam |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, 388-1, Pungnap-dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Korea;2.Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Konkuk University School of Medicine, 1 Hwayang-dong, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 143-701, Korea;3.Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea |
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Abstract: | Background: The objective of this study is to construct a preoperative nomogram predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early-cervical cancer patients.Methods: Between 2009 and 2012, 493 early-cervical cancer patients received hysterectomy and pelvic/para-aortic lymphadenectomy. Patients who were diagnosed during 2009–2010 were assigned to a model-development cohort (n=304) and the others were assigned to a validation cohort (n=189). A multivariate logistic model was created from preoperative clinicopathologic data, from which a nomogram was developed and validated. A predicted probability of LNM<5% was defined as low risk.Results: Age, tumour size assessed by magnetic resonance imaging, and LNM assessed by positron emission tomography/computed tomography were independent predictors of nodal metastasis. The nomogram incorporating these three predictors demonstrated good discrimination and calibration (concordance index=0.878; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.833−0.917). In the validation cohort, the discrimination accuracy was 0.825 (95% CI, 0.736−0.895). In the model-development cohort, 34% of them were classified as low risk and negative predictive value (NPV) was 99.0%. In the validation cohort, 38% were identified as low risk and NPV was 95.8%. Integrating the model-development and validation cohorts, negative likelihood ratio was 0.094 (95% CI, 0.036−0.248).Conclusion: A robust nomogram predicting LNM in early cervical cancer was developed. This model may improve clinical trial design and help physicians to decide whether lymphadenectomy should be performed. |
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Keywords: | cervical cancer lymphatic metastasis lymph node excision nomogram likelihood functions |
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