Assessment of Prevalence of Persons with Down Syndrome: A Theory‐based Demographic Model

Background The Netherlands are lacking reliable empirical data in relation to the development of birth and population prevalence of Down syndrome. For the UK and Ireland there are more historical empirical data available. A theory‐based model is developed for predicting Down syndrome prevalence in the Netherlands from the 1950s onwards. It is likewise applied to Ireland and the UK for the purpose of validation. Furthermore, a prediction to 2050 is constructed. Materials and Methods Maternal age births data in the general population, maternal age related risk of Down syndrome, data on selective terminations of Down syndrome pregnancies and mortality rates (from 35 studies from the 1930s until today) were obtained to create this model. Results For the Netherlands, nowadays birth prevalence is estimated at 14 per 10 000 with around 275 total annual births. The impact of selective abortion is lower than in the UK. Present Dutch Down syndrome population prevalence is estimated, according to this theory‐based model, at 7.7 per 10 000 and the grand total at 12 600 individuals. The prevalence of ‘older’ persons with Down syndrome (over 40 years of age) in the Netherlands will reach a peak in 2010, a doubling compared to 1990, implying an increased demand on medical care and counselling. Validity of this theory‐based model was examined by comparison with relevant available empirical data from the three countries. The model shows a good fit with historical empirical research, notably four UK and two Irish population prevalence studies and eight birth prevalence studies. Conclusions A theory‐based model for Down syndrome prevalence provides supplementary data in situations with a lack of empirical material and can be used for understanding and predicting long‐term developments.