中国0~14岁儿童1990—2019年溺水死亡现状及趋势分析

  目的  了解中国1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水死亡情况, 并探讨其发展变化趋势, 为中国儿童溺水干预措施提供参考依据。  方法  利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库中1990—2019年中国0~14岁儿童溺水死亡数据, 以世界标准人口计算其标准化率, 并利用Joinpoint回归模型分别拟合发生率、死亡率的变化趋势。  结果  中国1990—2019年0~14岁儿童溺水总体发生率从37.17/10万减少到12.54/10万, 相对下降了66.26%;标化发生率从21.78/10万减少到14.98/10万, 相对下降了31.22%。儿童溺水发生率、标化发生率呈先下降后增长的趋势, 死亡率、标化死亡率呈下降趋势。Joinpoint回归显示, 儿童溺水标化发生率年平均变化百分率总体为-1.3, 男童为-2.5, 女童为0;儿童溺水标化死亡率年平均变化百分率总体为-3.9, 男童为-3.6, 女童为-4.5;趋势变化均有统计学意义(P值均 < 0.05)。男童发生率、死亡率均高于女童, 男童与女童组间变化趋势差异有统计学意义(P值均 < 0.05)。  结论  中国儿童溺水发生率和死亡率大幅下降, 但是近年来发生率有所回升。儿童溺水危险因素有待进一步加强干预, 同时在儿童溺水重点人群上采取有效措施, 控制发生率与死亡率的进展。

Incidence,mortality and trends of drowning among children aged 0-14 years in China, 1990-2019

  Objective  To understand the incidence and mortality of drowning and secular trend among children aged 0-14 from 1990 to 2019 in China, so as to provide reference for drowning intervention among children in China.  Methods  Based on data of drowning incidence and death in 0-14 years old children in China in 1990-2019 years Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2019) database, the standardized rate was calculated by the world standard population, and the trend of incidence rate and mortality rate was fitted by Joinpoint regression model respectively.  Results  From 1990 to 2019, the overall incidence of drowning among children aged 0-14 years in China decreased from 37.17/100 000 to 12.54/100 000, a relative decrease of 66.26%; the standardized incidence rate decreased from 21.78/100 000 to 14.98/100 000, a relative decrease of 31.22%. The incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of drowning in children showed an increasing-after-decreasing trend, with decreasing mortality and standardized mortality rate. Joinpoint regression showed that the incidence rate of standardized AAPC for child drowning was -1.3, -2.5 for males and 0 for females. The overall standardized mortality rate of drowning was -3.9, male was -3.6, female was about -4.5, the trend changes were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The incidence rate and mortality rate of male were higher than that of female, and there was significant difference between male and female groups (P < 0.05).  Conclusion  Significant progress has been made in child drowning prevention and control, with substantial decreasing in the incidence rate of child drowning. However, considering recent slight increase in drowning incidence, effective measures should be developmed including risk factors, vulnerable population to further control the incidence and mortality of child drowning.